Pakistan’s provincial overhaul risks cementing elite control

Redrawing boundaries as a shortcut

Sheikh notes that the federal government’s plan to carve additional provinces from existing ones would simply transplant the same centralised power structures onto a larger map. The proposal, which would increase the number of provinces from four to as many as seven, is presented as a solution to regional grievances but, according to the author, ignores the underlying concentration of authority in Islamabad.

Indonesia’s decentralisation as a benchmark

The essay points to Indonesia’s post-Suharto reforms, where fiscal transfers and legally guaranteed local authority have reshaped centre-periphery relations. Sheikh highlights three pillars of that model: (1) a transparent formula for revenue sharing, (2) legally enshrined autonomy for sub-national units, and (3) capacity-building programmes for provincial administrations. He argues that these elements, rather than merely adding administrative layers, are what enabled Indonesia to move beyond a unitary system.

Why new provinces won’t solve the problem

According to Sheikh, the Pakistani elite’s control over patronage networks would simply extend into any new provinces, reproducing the same patterns of elite capture. The author warns that without a shift in fiscal and legal frameworks, the redrawing of borders will be a cosmetic change, leaving the same centralised decision-making intact.

The path forward

Sheikh concludes that Pakistan should focus on institutional reforms modeled on Indonesia’s decentralisation—particularly transparent fiscal devolution and legally protected local powers—rather than pursuing a territorial re-organisation that is likely to entrench existing power structures.