Governments to Tighten AI Control Amid Sovereignty Gap, Predicts Forrester

Politics Overrides Procurement Logic

Forrester’s 2027 outlook notes that political considerations will upend $40 bn of government technology deals. Decision-makers will begin to overrule CIOs when a supplier’s ownership, model provenance, data access or geopolitical exposure is deemed a sovereign risk, even if internal risk assessments rate the likelihood as low. The blog cites France’s preference for local cloud provider Scaleway over Azure in a health-data contract and Australian lawmakers’ calls to bar Palantir from public contracts as early signals.

Selective Air-Gaping After AI-Driven Intrusion

The report predicts that a state-sponsored autonomous AI attack will force at least one G7 country to move an intelligence, defense, identity or critical-service system into a fully air-gapped environment. This move will not signal a wholesale retreat from cloud services but will establish “selective isolation” as a resilience tactic. Security teams will need to identify systems that can operate for 90 days without public cloud, public models or continuous external connectivity.

OECD Nations Deploy AI Workforce Strategies

Two-fifths of OECD economies are expected to roll out AI labor-market transition strategies that blend workforce planning, reskilling incentives and social protections. The approach follows early pilots in Singapore, South Korea and California, emphasizing placement, mobility, retention and wage growth over mere course completion. Forrester frames this as a sovereignty issue: without a skilled domestic workforce, a nation cannot claim true control over AI capabilities.

Our read: The predictions converge on a single theme—AI will expose the illusion of digital sovereignty, prompting governments to intervene more aggressively, fragment markets and invest in human capital as the only viable lever of control.