Software loans account for roughly $100 bn of the $300 bn debt wall due in 2028-29

The Wall Street Journal reported that about $140 bn of risky corporate loans owed by private-equity-backed companies come due in 2028, with another $160 bn due in 2029. Software accounts for roughly one-third of those maturities, or about $100 bn of loans against B2B companies that PE firms bought at peak multiplessource(https://www.saastr.com/the-300-billion-software-debt-wall-the-big-b2b-defaults-unfortunately-havent-even-started-yet/).

Morningstar data shows 21 % of outstanding software loans mature in 2028, compared with 14 % on index loans broadly. Private-credit exposure to SaaS firms rose from almost $8 bn in 2015 to over $500 bn by the end of 2025, representing 19 % of total direct loans, according to the BIS.

Most of this wall dates to 2021. Seven-year loans written that year now mature in 2028. The financing assumed low rates and continued growth, but the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022, rising Treasury yields, and AI-driven competition have eroded those assumptions.

Lender pricing reflects stress. Bids for software loans fell from roughly 95 cents at the end of 2025 to about 85 cents, while non-software loans held near 96 cents. New software lending has also dried up; only 9 % of all US broadly syndicated loans issued this year, excluding repricings, have come from software companies.

Moody’s reported leveraged-loan defaults fell to 5 % in Q2, the lowest since September 2023, but private-credit defaults were 4 % for the 12 months to June, rising to 5.8 % when PIK amendments and extensions are counted. Software borrowers recorded the weakest credit metrics of any sector. Houlihan Lokey estimates that over a third of private-credit agreements with software borrowers at the end of 2025 included a PIK option, a threefold increase in three years. The share of new private-credit loans with PIK fell to 13.5 % in Q2 from 25 % at the end of 2025.

The refinancing window for 2028 maturities opens now and closes during 2027; for 2029 maturities it runs from 2027 into 2028. Most decisions on the $300 bn wall will be made over the next 12-18 months, after a year of rising rates, tighter PIK terms, and shrinking software lending.

Our read: The convergence of high leverage, falling loan prices, and a narrowing refinancing window creates systemic risk for PE-backed software firms, and the market’s response will shape B2B pricing and M&A dynamics over the next 18 months.